I'm looking at a state agency Request for Proposal (RFP) for IT services, specifically 541511, and trying to decide on a bid or no-bid. The incumbent has held this contract for nine years, and the RFP specifies a particular software solution that the incumbent uses. This looks like a "wired" RFP, but the agency says it's an open competition. The deadline is three weeks out.
My business development team says we should go for it, but I'm worried about spending three weeks of proposal writing for a contract that might already be decided. What signals do you look for in an RFP that suggest it might be wired for an incumbent? How do you decide whether to pursue it?